The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death and its implications for the future of the Islamic Republic.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were killed on Sunday in a helicopter crash while returning from Iran’s East Azerbaijan province. The president’s death, along with that of one of his closest officials, comes at a very delicate time for the Islamic Republic, which has faced numerous domestic and international challenges over the past year. These include direct escalating tensions with Israel and the widespread protests sparked by the killing of a young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, by the morality police while she was in custody. Given its already low level of popular legitimacy, the nezam will now have to organise (by constitution) a new presidential election within 50 days, with former vice-president Mohammad Mokhber serving as interim president. The upcoming election is not anticipated to bring about significant surprises. Political figures already favoured by the establishment are expected to secure victory, ensuring the preservation of the regime’s interests. The only likely sources of contention are internal disputes within the conservative circles. Indeed, as in the case of Raisi’s election in 2021, which took place after the disqualification by the Guardian Council of several lesser-known moderate and reformist candidates, another “man of the system” is expected to emerge. As far as domestic implications are concerned, Raisi’s death prompts significant questions about the succession to the role of Supreme Leader. Due to his credentials as a respected and well-known cleric, Raisi had long been considered as one of the favoured names to succeed the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
Experts from the ISPI network discuss Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death and its implications for the future of the Islamic Republic.
Raisi’s death: the long-term implications are the ones to monitor
“The helicopter crash that killed the Iranian president and his company, including minister of foreign affairs, has brought Tehran on the headlines of the global media. Many have been speculating the implication of this incident on the country’s domestic policy, and its regional and global strategies. As unprecedented as this incident was, the implication to these strategies is likely to be minimal. Raisi was promoted to the office of president for his full loyalty to the office of the Supreme Leader, and the minister of foreign affairs, in former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s word is merely “the executor” of its orders. The replacements of both men are likely to possess the same degree of loyalty, and political power. As such, both domestically and internationally, it will be business as usual for Iran. However, the long-term impact on the leadership succession will be worth monitoring. Afterall, Raisi was one of the very few clergies in Iran with the right political credentials for the job.”
Sara Bazoobandi, Associate Research Fellow, ISPI
Forthcoming presidential elections: the candidates will be already known politicians
“Given that Ayatollah Khamenei instructed Vice President Mohammad Mokhber to prepare and hold a presidential vote in 50 days, the prospect for Mokhber to be given a mandate to remain the caretaker President until 2025 (the official end of Raisi’s first term) has now been removed. A 50-day period is not enough, indeed 40 of these days will be spent on funeral and mourning for Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian, while commemoration of the 35th death anniversary of late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini will be held as well in this time. Nevertheless, whoever runs as a candidate for July vote will be an already known politician. In addition to Mohammad Mokhber, the potential names could include Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf, former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and former nuclear chief Ali-Akbar Salehi. As a personal idea, there is also a remote possibility that Raisi’s wife, Jameeleh Alamolhoda, who is a renowned academic, runs to fill her husband’s position.”
Fereshteh Sadeghi, Freelance Journalist
Raisi’s succession risks turning into a conservative infighting
“Videos of jubilant demonstrations allegedly held in some Iranian cities, following the news of the helicopter crash of the Iranian president, have been largely circulated throughout western media. Although it is difficult to verify the truthfulness of such footages, there is no doubt that Raisi was a president widely disliked by the Iranian population. His death, however, opens up even less encouraging succession hypotheses. Instead, the establishment is as always polarized, and Raisi’s succession is likely to turn into an internal struggle within the conservative system, where the ultra-conservative Paydari group is likely to get his victory over the traditionalist group, the principalists. It will be a short election campaign that will favour neither independents nor reformists and pragmatists.”
Nicola Pedde, Director, Institute for Global Studies (IGS)
The continuity of Iranian foreign policy will be guaranteed
“The death of President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian is unlikely to cause any shocks in Iranian foreign policy, which remains in the hands of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Pasdaran. Just as at the domestic level, also at the regional and international ones Iran will continue to proceed along the tracks of continuity, trying not to show signs of weakness in a phase of increased tensions in the Middle East, fuelled by the war in Gaza and support for its regional proxies. Ultimately, the objective of the Islamic Republic is to ensure the survival of the regime.”
Valeria Talbot, Head, MENA Centre, ISPI
The future of Iran’s supreme leadership may now harbour unexpected twists
“The death of Ebrahim Raisi has reignited the never-dormant debate about the succession to the role of Supreme Leader, as the president was considered one of the most credited names to succeed Ali Khamenei. Nevertheless, Raisi – an emanation of the Iranian Deep State – was certainly not the only candidate, neither for the establishment nor for the media. His death may have complicated the system’s calculations, which must now find another name to guarantee the continuation of the nezam’s interests. At the same time, however, there was already talk about other figures,including names such as Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamanei or Assembly of Experts member Alireza Arafi. As a matter of fact, eventually, internal negotiations within the Islamic Republic are complex and it is not certain that in the end (much like the papal conclave), an unexpected name will not win. As of today, it is still difficult to say who will become the new rahbar, nor whether Raisi’s death will complicate or simplify the race for the leadership of the country.”
Luigi Toninelli, Research Assistant, ISPI
The presidency transition: Iran’s bureaucratic system will hamper temporarily progress in foreign policy
“The death of Iranian President and Foreign Minister are likely to shape Iranian domestic politics and foreign policy in mixed ways. Iranian constitution puts forward a clear mechanism for substitution of the new president, according to which the new president is expected to enter office in couple of months. This fact will slow down the country’s bureaucratic system in the transitional period, hampering progress in some critical foreign policy files, such as regional dialogue and the nuclear talks with the US, as well. However, any meaningful policy changes until the new president is elected are unlikely to happen. Although Raisi was not a major candidate to replace the Supreme Leader, he held a critical position that could have influenced the selection process and domestic balance of power surrounding the Supreme Leader succession. Besides, his death is a test for the Islamic Republic’s bureaucracy revealing its ability to manage succession process in a time of emergencies and crisis.”
Abdolrasool Divsallar, Visiting Professor, Catholic University of Milan; Non-resident Scholar, MEI
L'articolo Iran after Raisi: what comes next? proviene da ISPI.